{"id":1580,"date":"2019-07-24T20:49:13","date_gmt":"2019-07-24T12:49:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shuizilong.com\/house\/?p=1580"},"modified":"2019-07-25T08:42:59","modified_gmt":"2019-07-25T00:42:59","slug":"are-we-borrowed-too-much","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shuizilong.com\/house\/archives\/are-we-borrowed-too-much\/","title":{"rendered":"Have we borrowed too much?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Have we borrowed too much?<\/h1>\n

\n Rule 1 : Don\u2019t have debt rise faster than income. (because your debt burdens will eventually crush you.)
\n \u2014\u2014 How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio<\/a>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u7bc7\u5173\u4e8e\u5e7f\u544a\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u5148\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e00\u7ec4\u5173\u4e8e\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6bd5\u7adf\u73b0\u5728\u5df2\u7ecf\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u4e2a App \u5c31\u4f1a\u6709\u767d\u6761\u6216\u767d\u6761\u5e7f\u544a\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

\u524d\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5728\u5bb6\u91cc\u770b Tmono<\/a>\u00a0\u770b\u300a\u957f\u5b89\u5341\u4e8c\u65f6\u8fb0\u300b\u3002\u542c Tmono \u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u90e8\u8d28\u91cf\u4e0a\u4e58\u7684\u7f51\u5267\uff0c\u670d\u9970\u8003\u7a76\uff0c\u8282\u594f\u660e\u5feb\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u7a0d\u5fae\u6709\u4e00\u70b9\u7f8e\u5267\u7684\u610f\u601d\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u8fd9\u90e8\u5927\u7ea2\u7f51\u5267\uff0c\u6233\u4e2d\u6211\u7684\u5c45\u7136\u4e0d\u662f\u5267\u60c5\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u4e2d\u95f4\uff0c\u63d2\u5165\u7684\u8fdc\u8fdc\u6bd4\u6211\u6240\u80fd\u591f\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u591a\u5f97\u591a\u7684 P2P \u7f51\u8d37\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u5e7f\u544a\u3002<\/p>\n

\n \u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u300a\u957f\u5b89\u5341\u4e8c\u65f6\u8fb0\u300b\u662f\u4e00\u9897\u6bd2\u836f\uff1f\u6211\u770b\u4e86\u524d 4 \u96c6\u5c31\u5f03\u5267\u4e86\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u4e8e\u6bcf\u6bcf\u770b\u5230\u7cbe\u5f69\u5904\uff0c\u4e2d\u95f4\u5c31\u4f1a\u7a7f\u63d2\u4e00\u4e2a P2P \u7406\u8d22\u5e7f\u544a\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u5c34\u5c2c\u75c7\u90fd\u72af\u4e86\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u51e0\u5f20\u5e7f\u544a\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u622a\u56fe\uff0c\u690d\u5165\u7684\u63a8\u5e7f\u6587\u6848\u90fd\u975e\u5e38\u7b80\u5355\u7c97\u66b4\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e7f\u544a\u7684\u690d\u5165\u4e3b\u8981\u504f\u5411\u4e8e\u4ece\u5b89\u5168\u3001\u6536\u76ca\u7a33\u5b9a\u3001\u8ba9\u4f60\u8d5a\u94b1\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\uff0c\u8ba9\u4f60\u53bb\u4fe1\u4efb\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7f51\u8d37\u7406\u8d22\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u63d0\u793a\u8bed\u5374\u975e\u5e38\u5c0f\u3002
\n \u2014\u2014 \u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8bf4\u56db\u5b57\u5f1f\u5f1f\u4e3b\u6f14\u7684\u300a\u957f\u5b89\u5341\u4e8c\u65f6\u8fb0\u300b\u662f\u4e00\u9897\u6bd2\u836f\uff1f<\/a>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u7f51\u4e0a\u641c\u4e86\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u770b\u6765\u679c\u7136\u4e0d\u6b62\u6211\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u5410\u69fd\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\u3002\u622a\u6b62\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u8fd9\u90e8\u7f51\u5267\u91cc\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u4e92\u91d1\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5e7f\u544a\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u6709\u548c\u4fe1\u8d37\u3001\u7231\u94b1\u8fdb\u3001\u609f\u7a7a\u7406\u8d22\u3001PPmoney \u548c\u4eba\u4eba\u8d37\u3002\u4ee5\u4eba\u4eba\u8d37\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u65e9\u5728\u300a\u519b\u5e08\u8054\u76df\u300b\u91cc\uff0c\u5c31\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86 \u8fd9\u79cd\u4e92\u91d1\u5e7f\u544a<\/a>\uff0c\u5957\u8def\u548c\u300a\u957f\u5b89\u5341\u4e8c\u65f6\u8fb0\u300b\u91cc\u7684\u4e5f\u5982\u51fa\u4e00\u8f99\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9664\u4e86\u7f51\u5267\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7f51\u8d37\u5e73\u53f0\u8fd8\u7784\u51c6\u4e86\u76f4\u64ad\u5e73\u53f0\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u805a\u96c6\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u6597\u9c7c DNF \u4e3b\u64ad\u5b9d\u54e5\uff0c\u66fe\u7ecf\u5c31\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u76f4\u64ad\u95f4\u91cc\u5f3a\u70c8\u8c34\u8d23\u6597\u9c7c\u6302\u4eba\u4eba\u8d37\u5e7f\u544a\u7684\u884c\u4e3a<\/a>\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u9192\u4ed6\u7684\u7c89\u4e1d\u7406\u6027\u770b\u5f85\u7f51\u8d37\u3002\u800c\u5728\u8fd9\u5219\u89c6\u9891\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u533a\uff0c\u5c31\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u8eab\u8fb9\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u300a\u957f\u5b89\u5341\u4e8c\u65f6\u8fb0\u300b\u91cc\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6865\u6bb5<\/a>\uff0c\u8bf4\u6709\u8d3c\u4eba\u7ed9\u7b97\u4e0d\u6e05\u8d26\u7684\u8001\u4eba\u653e\u5370\u5b50\u94b1\uff08\u53e4\u4ee3\u7684\u9ad8\u5229\u8d37\uff09\uff0c\u6eda\u51fa\u51e0\u5341\u500d\u7684\u5229\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6536\u623f\u62a2\u95fa\u5973\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u8fd8\u62d2\u6355\u3002\u800c\u7f51\u8d37\u4ea7\u54c1\u4e5f\u9009\u62e9\u628a\u76ee\u6807\u7784\u51c6\u4e86\u98ce\u9669\u610f\u8bc6\u4e0d\u8db3\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u900f\u652f\u672a\u6765\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u53ea\u6709 P2P \u501f\u8d37\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709 \u8d37\u6b3e\u57f9\u8bad<\/a>\uff0c\u8d37\u6b3e\u79df\u623f<\/a>\uff0c\u5404\u79cd\u4e94\u82b1\u516b\u95e8\u7684 P2P \u5f62\u6001\u4e5f\u5c42\u51fa\u4e0d\u7a77\u3002<\/p>\n

\n 1\u5e74\u4e8f\u635f\u51c06\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u8fbe\u5185\u6559\u80b2\u201c\u6b3a\u8bc8\u62db\u751f\u201d\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u626d\u8f6c\u50f5\u5c40\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u5e02\u9762\u4e0a\u90e8\u5206\u6559\u80b2\u673a\u6784\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0e\u4e00\u4e9b\u91d1\u878d\u5e73\u53f0\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u6559\u80b2\u5206\u671f\u4e1a\u52a1\u3002\u7b80\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5b66\u751f\u53ef\u901a\u8fc7\u5411\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u501f\u6b3e\u652f\u4ed8\u5b66\u8d39\uff0c\u518d\u4ee5\u5206\u671f\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u507f\u8fd8\u501f\u6b3e\u3002
\n …
\n \u800c\u9664\u4e86\u865a\u5047\u5ba3\u4f20\u3001\u8bf1\u5bfc\u8d37\u6b3e\u5916\uff0c\u6559\u80b2\u5206\u671f\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u5f0a\u7aef\u4fbf\u662f\u8d37\u6b3e\u4ed8\u8d39\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u96be\u4ee5\u7ef4\u7cfb\u3002\u4e0d\u5c11\u57f9\u8bad\u673a\u6784\u5728\u6536\u53d6\u5b66\u751f\u8d39\u7528\u540e\u5931\u8054\uff0c\u65e0\u5904\u4e0a\u8bfe\u7684\u5b66\u751f\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8fd8\u5c06\u627f\u62c5\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u5b66\u8d39\u3002
\n \u5176\u4e2d\uff0c2016\u5e7412\u6708\uff0c\u5728\u5317\u4eac\u5f00\u529e\u8fd110\u5e74\u7684\u5317\u4eac\u73af\u7403\u7f8e\u8054\u82f1\u8bed\u57f9\u8bad\u673a\u6784\u7a81\u7136\u505c\u4e1a\uff0c\u8001\u677f\u8dd1\u8def\u5931\u8054\uff0c\u4f46\u5b66\u5458\u4eec\u7684\u8bfe\u7a0b\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5b66\u5b8c\u3002\u636e\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u5b66\u5458\u8d85\u8fc7500\u4eba\uff0c\u8bfe\u65f6\u8d39\u4ece\u51e0\u5343\u5143\u5230\u51e0\u4e07\u5143\u4e0d\u7b49\u3002
\n \u2014\u2014 \u8fbe\u5185\u6559\u80b2\u201c\u82b1\u5f0f\u5272\u97ed\u83dc\u201d\uff1a\u8bf1\u5bfc\u5b66\u5458\u8d37\u6b3e 2018\u5e74\u4e8f\u635f\u8fd16\u4ebf\u5143<\/a>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6848\u4f8b\u4e0d\u7981\u8ba9\u6211\u60f3\u8d77\uff0c\u591a\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u5ed6\u8001\u5e08\u548c\u6211\u63d0\u5230\u7684 \u7f8e\u56fd\u5b66\u751f\u8d37\u6b3e\uff08Student loans in the United States\uff09<\/a>\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u80b2\u666e\u904d\u5f88\u6602\u8d35\uff0c\u54ea\u6015\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5f88\u591a\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u79c1\u7acb\u5b66\u6821\uff0c\u5b66\u8d39\u662f\u5168\u7f8e\u56fd\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u3002\u542b\u4f4f\u5bbf\u7684\u8bdd\u5b66\u8d39\u5728 $40,000 – $60,000 \u5de6\u53f3\u4e00\u5e74\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6587\u5316\u6bd4\u8f83\u5d07\u5c1a\u5c0f\u5b69 18 \u5c81\u4ee5\u540e\u72ec\u7acb\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u95ef\u8361\uff0c\u5c3d\u91cf\u5c11\u7684\u5f97\u5230\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u8d44\u52a9\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8bb8\u591a\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u4e60\u60ef\u8d37\u6b3e\u4ed8\u5b66\u8d39\u5982\u679c\u7236\u6bcd\u6536\u5165\u4e0d\u9ad8\u7684\u8bdd\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\n \u52a9\u5b66\u8d37\u6b3e\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u597d\u503a\uff0c\u5b66\u751f\u8fd8\u6b3e\u521a\u6027\u5f3a\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u5229\u7387\u7684\u786e\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u94f6\u884c 5.5% \u7684\u8d37\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\u3001\u6c7d\u8f66\u6d88\u8d39\u8d37 5.05% \u7684\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u672c\u79d1\u8054\u90a6\u5b66\u751f\u8d37\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\u4e3a 5.05%\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u4e3a 6.6%\u3002
\n \u4f46\u8fd9\u4e5f\u8ba9\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u672a\u6765\u7684\u8fd8\u8d37\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u538b\u529b\u9762\u524d\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u5c06\u6218\u7ebf\u8d8a\u62c9\u8d8a\u957f\u3002\u5f6d\u535a\u5168\u7403\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc7\u5341\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684\u501f\u6b3e\u4eba\u81f3\u5c11\u903e\u671f 90 \u5929\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4e25\u91cd\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7387\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fbe\u5230 9.1%\u7684\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u800c\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u548c\u6c7d\u8f66\u8d37\u6b3e\u7684\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7387\u5206\u522b\u4e3a 1.1% \u548c 4\uff05\u3002
\n \u2014\u2014 \u597d\u5947\u5fc3\u65e5\u62a5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u52a9\u5b66\u8d37\u6b3e\u89c4\u6a21\u8fbe\u5230 1.56 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4ec5\u6b21\u4e8e\u4f4f\u623f\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e<\/a>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u6839\u636e \u7ef4\u57fa\u767e\u79d1\u7684\u8d44\u6599<\/a>\uff0cNCES<\/a> \u5728 2018 \u5e74\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c12 \u5e74\u5b66\u751f\u8d37\u6b3e\u7684\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7387\u4e3a 52%\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u5728\u975e\u88d4\u65cf\u7fa4\u91cc\u662f 65.7%\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4efd \u5e03\u9c81\u91d1\u65af\u5b66\u4f1a\uff08Brookings Institution\uff09<\/a> \u540c\u5e74\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u62a5\u544a\u91cc\uff0c\u6307\u51fa “\u8fd1 40% \u7684\u5728 2004 \u5e74\u501f\u51fa\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u8d37\u6b3e\u5c06\u4f1a\u5728 2023 \u5e74\u906d\u9047\u8fdd\u7ea6”\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5b66\u751f\u8d37\u6b3e\u662f\u975e\u6781\u4e2a\u522b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u552f\u4e00\u4e0d\u80fd\u968f\u7740\u7834\u4ea7\u7533\u8bf7\u800c\u4e00\u7b14\u52fe\u9500\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u6279\u8bc4\u4eba\u58eb\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5b66\u751f\u8d37\u6b3e\u6b63\u5728\u9010\u6e10\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\u52a0\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e95\u5c42\u6c11\u4f17\u8eab\u4e0a\u7684\u4e00\u79cd \u201c\u5974\u5f79\u5951\u7ea6\u201d\uff0c\u8ba9\u5b66\u751f\u7528\u672a\u6765\u52b3\u52a8\u507f\u8fd8\u6559\u80b2\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5e76\u6f5c\u5728\u5730\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u5b66\u751f\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u804c\u4e1a\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u662f\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u81f3\u6076\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8981\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u503a\u52a1\u662f\u5371\u673a\u7684\u79cd\u5b50\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u624d\u521a\u521a\u8fc7\u53bb 10 \u5e74\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u786e\u5b9a\u8981\u628a\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e1c\u897f\u4e5f Copy to China \u4e48\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599<\/h2>\n